Wednesday, April 30, 2008

The Accounting.

Have you ever stood on a precipice, quietly, and just contemplated the profundity of the moment? The place itself, with highly resolved definition, its obvious hazards and possibilities, forces a conception of a finely discrete moment in time. . .one MUST be aware.

I am halfway through the last year of my thirties, to the day. I've been in Hawaii for six months, to the week. The world heaves around me, with the first suggestion of a convulsion. It is food for thought for sure. Having walked Kilauea enough now I can surely see the signs.

Someone asked me the other day, taking note of the projects around the place: "Dude, you REALLY think the shit is going to hit the fan, don't you?"

I was a bit taken aback, actually. The shit HAS hit the fan. It's simply a matter now of the spray pattern, where one was lucky or unfortunate enough to be standing, and whether one ducked quick enough.

Are we not paying attention?

Oil is at 120, expert mainstream opinion suggests stability later in the year at 150-180.
In the last 12 months.
Wheat has quadrupled in price.
Corn tripled.
Rice quadrupled and even so, spot shortages occur now.
Copper tripled.
Aluminum doubled.
Molybdenum doubled.

Countrywide went bust.
Bear Sterns went bust.
Citigroup is near bust.
Ambac is near bust.
Morgan Stanley, Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual--are all in dire situations as well.
Aloha Airlines dead in the water.
ATA dead in the water.
Others flounder.

The dollar has slid 30 percent in its buying power around the world.

The Fed has loaned out at giveaway rates 80 percent of all the capital it has available, more or less for the collateral equal in value to a sack of dirty socks.

Real estate values across the country(and Europe) have slid 25 or so percent, experts call for another 20. There's 1.1 trillion dollars of home equity loans out on that crap.

Consumer Confidence Index at record lows. No damn doubt!

Bush has taken up singing and dancing, and seems strangely Nero-esque.

I have:

Made a choice to move to bum-fuck no-where Hawaii to avoid Zombiegeddon.

Planted 100+ koa trees
1 dozen coffee
1 dozen tea
1 dozen papaya
3 cashew
1 allspice
1 nutmeg
a 2000 square foot garden
all the taro I can get a hold of.

Built a producer gas generator(which works) to power in event of gas shortages and rationing.

Invested in a ton of tools.

And basically am training myself to get to hunkerdown living in the most comfortable way possible, which is no small deal.

I would REALLY encourage those people I care about to pull the head out and take a good look around, and be very very careful: make every attempt possible to prepare for what may lay ahead. There is a real possibility, not yet a certainty, of a very dire and disruptive future not far ahead. There IS a certainty of a merely difficult one.

Only while ignorance and denial still holds the popular mind will there remain an ability to act.

Wednesday, March 26, 2008

A Sermon

. . .taking a deep breath, and attempting to avoid a screaming fit.

Within any sensible moral or ethical system there is a hierarchy of importance: which is to say that in order to be able to claim "goodness"--assuming one can't be "perfect"--one is compelled to right the biggest most important wrongs first and move down the line to the trivial. For example, supposing some screwball murdering pedophile wanted to reform and become a good person, it would be important that the first step would be to remedy one's biggest crime--ie, quit killing kids. If our murdering pedophile decided rather that her first step towards righteousness be to work on clearing up her profanity, even if those efforts were successful, any sensible ethical system would declare those efforts more or less pointless--even inherently bad--as all the efforts achieve, really, is simply perpetrate one's major crimes through self-serving evasion.

We live in a world where 3/4 of the worlds population lives on less than 2 dollars a day, and that fully 1/3 of humanity dies of malnutrition and cruddy water. This is a fact. I believe that this issue will only get worse, as we face climate change and resource depletion, and a perpetual trend towards wealth disparity--we may quibble about those issues, barely. Still the FACT remains that the conditions of life of the vast masses of humanity is miserable in the extreme, and to ignore this, and to evade the notion that one might be culpable in some degree for this condition, to my mind is criminally inhumane.

So then, where the hell do we get the right, we fat and lazy privileged folk, getting all worked up about GMO's, invasive species(though useful and edible), and other bourgeois fetish issues, etc.,--in light of the reality that faces the masses of mankind?

That here in Hawaii we would arbitrarily ban all GMO's, technologies that have the potential to feed the starving--because we somehow have the notion, completely unsupported by any evidence, and GMO's are all bad and unhealthy. I'm certain that one out of 3 people in this world, if you gave them a glow in the dark, semi-poisonous lab grown utterly synthetic blob would eat it eagerly and thank you for it. GMO's? If you could show me one case where you could factually document that any GMO's kills more people than organic peanut butter. . .well, then we have a place to start. Otherwise this is kneejerk fopist ethics.

That here in Hawaii we would get completely bent out of shape about invasive species, unquestionably the most powerful and viable plants on this island, that in many ways act as Gaian scar tissue healing the damage of the sugarcane fields, clear cuts, road cuts, cattle damage and the rest--what would is island look like if these plants were never introduced? I'm in no way arguing for the further introduction of such things--but am simply calling attention to the fact that we ecological progressives have vastly more important things for us to spend our time worrying about. There is a fair chance, that if moderate climate change forecasts are accurate, that the invasive plants will be the ONLY plants on this island that are viable and adaptive enough to survive the next 500 years.

I expect I need to lay off the coffee, but am not done yet.

The difficulties that face us as a world are so massive, and so dire, and the human cost, and the cost to life in general, is going to be so vast--that anybody not pulling to remedy those basic issues is pulling in the opposite direction. To remedy these basic issues is going to require basic sacrifices--large sacrifices--in our current standard of living. Outside of a few radicals, I see next to no meaningful efforts towards constructive change. In fact, I see an entire industry being created, as evil and insincere as any ever created, that generates "products" and "activities" marketed to mostly well meaning informed people, that are designed wholly to satisfy the urges of "good" people to "do something" but actually accomplish nothing whatsoever, and demand no personal sacrifice. As if compact fluorescent bulbs are going to feed anyone. . .

Something, I hope, to think about. Are some of our busy efforts well meaning? Misguided? Insincerely self-indulgent? I think it's important we ask these questions of ourselves, and for many, that in a very sophomoric manner fancy themselves as the vanguard of "change"--I think the answers will be uncomfortable.

Monday, March 24, 2008

AADD Nation

As for diatribes: this will be a diatribe.

First, taxes. It's 10 in the morning, and I'm drunk. I alway get drunk to do taxes, as it's the only way it's sensible and keeps me from having screaming fits. As one who would claim to be a humanitarian, ecologically minded progressive, it fires me in the extreme to be compelled by law to "tithe" to the church of corrupt materialism, and it's certain that my tax dollars I pay go to, solely, undo any good I try to work in the world. It is absolutely measurable to show that of any dollar I pay in taxes, x amount goes to a corrupt kleptocratic banking system, to Haliburton, to bombing people for oil. . .and on down the line. It is pointless for me to protest, ineffectually, that I "don't support the war", when a very factual way I do. This has bothered me enough that for years I lived in a minimalist enough fashion that I paid no taxes--but I got tired of not getting laid so I changed my ways. Even the hippy chicks expect you to keep them fat in organic food(expensive) and weed. Ah well. I sold out and was back in the saddle in about a week.

It's official. I don't call myself an environmentalist anymore--I call myself a survivalist.

Just how fucking stupid are the American people? Seriously, I ask this non-rhetorically. I'm well aware that the vast majority of the US is profoundly screwed up and deliberately capital "F" dumb--like they believe the world is 10000 years old and angels walk the isles of Walmart. . .or that homeopathy is a science. . .but let's ignore that crowd and move towards people who have actually done a bit of education--perhaps we'll look at big buck fund managers--9 out of 10 which, in spite of their high dollar degrees, cannot out perform the indexes, or a team of moneys flicking shit at a wall, and where it sticks BUY. This is no hyperbole, mind you, this is a fact. As well it is a fact, that in spite out how I bitch, I seem incapable of overestimating the tremendous inertial effect of ignorance. In the great greater fools game we call the American Economy, I had begun to believe we are out of fools. Well, we haven't hit "peak fool" yet apparently. Last week, consensus: the financial world is ending. The Fed waves it's magic wand. Monday--all is saved! Seriously, who the hell believes anything has changed? As for myself, any crisis great enough that the central bank feels compelled to more or less give away a HALF TRILLION DOLLARS should scare any sensible person into the hills. But it hasn't. And that should scare you even the more.

So then, my freinds call me and tell me they are worried about their credit rating. I, am with rabid intent perfecting my wood gas generator and learning everything about this lost technology I can. It hasn't been simple. There are loads of information out, and on the net, for free, and all too often you get your money's worth. Yet progress is made, and the system runs, but woe to anyone who tries to undertake this project once the crunch finally hits. Er, you'll run that welder on what? Still, I've learned a bunch, and that's worth while, but gadzooks, what a hassle.

We have no idea what the value of fossil fuels really is. We take that utterly for granted. We seem incapable to relate to a world of unmechanized work, as we've never seen it--but again, the rule of thumb is that if you've got a gallon of gasoline at your disposal, you can get more work done in a day than you can in a month without. At that point, if work needs to be done, there is really no price at which fuel doesn't pay--a hundred dollars a gallon would still be cheap. Unfortunately, much of the "ecological progressive" community works in a world of academics and service, and has no connect whatsoever to reality. If they did, they'd be much more thoughtful. Even of the wilderness community, of those who have spent some time backpacking and understand the natural world to some degree--woodcraft--ie, primitivism and skills, is much lacking. Synthetic tents, clothes, and fossil fuel based cook stoves preparing vacuum packed freeze dehydrated meals. Getting back to nature, eh? Damn--it would be well that a dose of reality would be dumped on everyone. . .but I'd rather it would happen before the game was for keeps.

Sunday, March 16, 2008

Drunkenly searching for good news. . .

Well, I'm fucked.

Prophecy. The fed drops rates next week .50. Gold goes to 1015, oil to 116, and the dollar loses two percent against the euro and the yen. Does anybody else read the news?

And by the way, a Holtzman gas generator doesn't work worth a damn on wet wood.

Monday, March 3, 2008

Emerging from the jungle

Here I am in my new little cabin in Hawaii, typing away at a much overdue update. . .

Gosh, have got a lot done in the last few months. I've got a small house, fruit trees, a koi pond, coffee growing in the yard and a bit of time to sit and think. It is interesting, having been removed from the screaming media mostly for most of 4 months, the shift in attitudes towards many issues that may seem incremental to many--but if you take a vacation from the noise it doesn't' seem so.

It's interesting how notions of peak oil, global warming, and the collapse of the US banking system have become mainstream ideas at this point. Talk about boiling frogs! The most alarming thing I find in these issues is exactly that--the more or less total lack of alarm. I'm scared shitless, and better prepared than many to weather this gathering group of storms. Even among those who are relatively educated, informed, and progressive--there is a complete disconnect between their views of the future and their actions. Just as the nice couple the other day who was quizzing me about my small homestead, and how to build--we discussed these issues all in depth. And then, they ask--well, how do you finance your homestead? Uh, of course, you DON'T. You pay for it out of pocket. And you especially pay for it out of pocket in a world with failing banks. And you certainly don't expose yourself to the threat of loosing your little home by lost jobs and missing a payment. You're better off to live in your car, if you are secure there--then take the risk in the forthcoming environment. But the question was telling--they ape the words, they enjoy the culture of apocalypse--but they don't fucking get it. We're talking about the real deal here, where knowledgeable intelligent experts are talking about the end of human civilization--not a recession.

Being counterculture so often is really just being component of the the culture, and the modern green ecologist is certainly THAT. It's Patagonia rather than Bebe, its Land Cruisers rather than Range Rovers--it's flying to Bali rather than Cancun, but it's all the same bullshit American consumerism. It's all about big dogs and babies too, frogs laying eggs in boiling water. Hell, I've got to say that at this point it's all but obvious that GW BUSH is probably the greatest president of all time, as he most accurately and broadly reflects the values of the American people; ie., ignorance, entitlement, and smug self satisfaction. But give it a couple of more months. . .

Thursday, September 27, 2007

Hi all,

Back from a wedding on Cape Cod, saw a lot of the area and was certainly admiring of the preservation of both small boat cruising and vintage(read practical) types of boats. It is so very important to realize that boats are expressions of their environment and tasks, and that no type of boat is equally successful in all environments.

It is critically important to understand just what one is going to expect a sailboat to do.

Had an interesting conversation with a fellow from a local maritime museum. He was familiar with my projects and very supportive of the need to preserve sail-handling techniques. The museum had just completed a replica of a typical cape cod fishing cat boat and was actually going to exhibit scallop fishing under sail for the first time in nearly a century. I was very keen on the project indeed, as net handling under sail is something I know nothing about but certainly have a good deal of interest, and would say that THIS is the sort of preservation programs we need to see more of--and less of the tall ship bullshit that really teaches very little but exclusivity and bad renditions of watered down sea-chanties.

The great PROBLEM with the program, however, was this--we're talking about a $300000 30 foot boat. Sure, a beautiful thing for certain--solid old-growth cypress with a spit shine--but all in all wholly misses a very critical component of traditional sailing: COST EFFECTIVENESS. I wonder if the boat will actually ever break the 100 dollars a scallop mark for return on investment. I doubt it. There is no way in hell that such boat represent anything working craft at all--it's purely a rich man's toy to dabble with playing fisherman--and in some ways an affront to the whole idea. I'm not against building such a boat, but I'd probably not launch it--rather put it in a glass case for people to look at. If you want to fish scallops, build a boat that's similar in concept but built out of old car hoods or ferrocement--something that will actually fire at cost effectiveness. We'd learn more all in all.

Working sail craft is on the cusp of viability as we speak. Ocean freight for small packages is currently selling at 5 dollars a cubic foot to major ports, more expensive to small ports. Fishing open source fisheries under sail becomes profitable as fuel for run and travel time becomes more and more expensive and the fish of less value. Sail has the potential to be very very very cost effective indeed, especially with long lived modern materials--and I really hope we don't loose all the skills needed before it all comes back. The average sailor doesn't know what he doesn't know, and it will be a rude awakening for many to rediscover these skills.

Just proves again how important the Oar Club and Seasteading projects really are.

Tuesday, September 11, 2007

Be the change you want to see in the world. . .

That's been my mantra from the start.

First, I've certainly realized early on that as we as a culture move through our predicted "revaluation of all values" there would be a great deal of social confusion. And confusion there certainly is: not a single pillar of our social values has remained unshaken--roles of friendship, partnership, family, responsibility(if any) to others, to society, to mankind--relationships between children and parents, parents and children, business, employer/employee relationships. . .if we look, most every relationship involved with human life has in the last 20 years taken a large step into the unknown and has been left on questionable ground. Most of us simply don't know where we stand. All too often what passes for "appropriate" behavior within society has come down to a personal selection of the most advantageous broken pieces of our social mores--advantageous to the "me" involved, and everyone else can take a hike.

That's sensible to a degree, and there's something to be said for the integrity of the Ayn Randian non-altruistic midset, as, we must admit, that's really how most(if not all) people really do behave. Maybe the only difference between ethical behavior and unethical behavior at the core is simply honesty: it's all about me, and if I admit that and play straight up about that, I'm ethical--if I lie about that fact, I'm not. Of course it's really not advantageous to be honest about that.

Who cares--does it really matter?

This morass is the reason I've abandoned such musings in the last couple years, and have discarded the terminology of "ethical" for "constructive." The trouble with "ethics" as a study is that it assumes there is a higher good from the start. Of course, that's indefensible. Constructive, however, as a value, only assumes that you indeed consciously and effectually move towards that you have chosen(arbitrarily) to pursue. Once you make this assumption, you discover many "values" cannot be constructive ultimately, because they're self-defeating. For example, one might decide purposely and deliberately to be the worlds greatest alcoholic. Sure, go for it. While I can't argue that there is some value in becoming the greatest anything, unfortunately the activity itself will defeat the end, as you'll die in the process. But, don't take it all too seriously, as that's where we all end up anyway. Still, some concepts, goals, and ideas are greatly more constructive than others.

SO, after all that blather, one of my personal goals has been to personally demonstrate the possibility of living a constructive life in the absence of god. While all the atheistic books have got the press lately, and I certainly laud Dawkins, Harris, Hitchens and others for making the notion popular, I've got to say, that topic is pretty tired and among progressive thinkers about 150 years out of date. As well, ultimately, so much of what is published is really baby steps into the realm of the godless universe--and the same crap said early, more or less attempting to keep the same values and inserting "science and reason" for "god" as a first principle. Hume won that argument, didn't he? As far as I'm concerned, he sure did.

An atheist in my definition isn't simply someone who doesn't believe in god. An atheist is someone who knows god doesn't exist and knows that the fact of the absence of god is important.

So, certainly my sailing adventures, my books, and the Oarclub and Sea-Steading projects have been part of this whole affair. The new adventure in Hawaii is as well. Simply put, it's a desperate attempt as an orphan of the universe to wrest some meaning out of the unfathomable, and to breathe life into purpose. No small thing that, but knowing what I'm doing all along makes it all a lot more sensible. . .